Story map
Read this like a founder: problem, early product, first customers, then the moments that changed everything.
Key moments
Experiments, pivots, and surprises. Look for what changed their thinking.
- 1Question
What happened: Researchers turn a broad claim such as 'this programme helps' into outcomes that can be observed and compared.
Lesson: A precise question makes it easier to discover when an appealing idea is wrong.
- 2Test
What happened: Field experiments compare different approaches in real settings rather than relying only on intuition.
Lesson: Evidence can reveal how people respond after the first intended effect.
- 3Interpretation
What happened: Researchers examine whether a result is large, lasting and likely to apply in other settings.
Lesson: Good evidence still needs careful interpretation before it becomes policy.
Impact
Every product creates value, and every decision has a trade-off. Good founders stay honest about both.
Positive
- +The experimental approach has improved the evidence available for decisions about education, health and other anti-poverty programmes.
- +J-PAL makes summaries of many evaluations available to policymakers and the public.
Trade-offs
- ±Randomised evaluations cannot answer every moral, political or system-level question.
- ±The well-known Kenya bed-net pricing study linked from this lesson was conducted by J-PAL affiliates Jessica Cohen and Pascaline Dupas; it should not be attributed to Duflo personally.
What to remember
If you had to explain this story to a friend, what would you want them to remember?
- Ask what people are likely to do after the first effect of a decision.
- Use evidence to challenge a plausible story rather than only to confirm it.
- Check who conducted a study before attaching a famous person's name to its findings.
Featured in these lessons
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Sources & further reading
- MIT Economics, Esther Duflo biography - https://economics.mit.edu/people/faculty/esther-duflo
- Nobel Prize, Esther Duflo facts - https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/economic-sciences/2019/duflo/facts/
- J-PAL, Free bednets to fight malaria - https://www.povertyactionlab.org/case-study/free-bednets-fight-malaria
- J-PAL, Free Distribution or Cost Sharing? Evidence from a Malaria Prevention Experiment in Kenya - https://www.povertyactionlab.org/evaluation/free-distribution-or-cost-sharing-evidence-malaria-prevention-experiment-kenya

