← Glossary/Decision
Good decision, bad outcome
Judge a choice by the information you had at the time, not by how it turned out. The result and the choice are separate things.
Example
You took an umbrella because rain was forecast. It did not rain. That does not mean taking the umbrella was a bad decision. The information at the time pointed that way. The outcome was just one of the possible results.
How it fits in
Outcomes are noisy. Process is signal. A good decision can lead to a bad outcome, and a bad decision can get lucky. Reviewing the process (what you knew, who you asked, which option you chose and why) is more useful than letting the result settle the question. Strong decision-makers learn from process; weak ones only ever learn from results.
Where this is taught
Related terms
Whether the same action helps or hurts depends on the situation around it.
A way to make hard choices: picture yourself at eighty and ask which option you would regret skipping more.
Make decisions inside what you actually understand. The aim is not the biggest circle, but knowing where its edge is.